Showing posts with label budget cutting. Show all posts

War On 45



Word is (again) that the Libyan rebels are at the gates of Tripoli, and that the Mad Dog might be getting ready to head out to pasture.

Moammar Gadhafi is making preparations for a departure from Libya with his family for possible exile in Tunisia, U.S. officials have told NBC News, citing intelligence reports…

The officials could provide no further details as to conditions or precise timing for Gadhafi’s departure, NBC said, and the news report emphasized that there was no guarantee that Gadhafi would follow through on any plans to flee…

Five loud explosions shook the center of Tripoli on Thursday afternoon, possibly striking near Gadhafi’s compound. NATO jets flew overhead minutes after the blasts. It wasn’t immediately clear what was hit or if there were civilian casualties. NATO has bombarded military targets all over Libya since March when a no-fly zone was instituted…

If Qadaffi leaves, then arguably you could say that the Obama Administration's passive-aggressive approach to Middle Eastern warfare had the positive effect of getting rid of at least one lousy petro-dictator. Then again, the word on the Arab Street is that any Qadaffi abdication will be promptly followed by a massive blood-letting. I thought the whole reason we were in Libya was to prevent a massacre in Benghazi. Is a massacre in Tripoli OK? Smart power is a lot more difficult than I realized.


Putting aside international diplomacy, Ace looks at what we can learn about America's future war-making should Obama's half-assed bombing raids lead to the exact same result as the massive expenditure of blood and treasure obtained in Iraq

The Bush model of war -- go in heavy, attempt to win the war on the backs of American (and allied) soldiers, attempt to establish a monopoly on the use of violence, and then continue that monopoly on the use of violence by acting as the nation's law enforcement/army for five, six, ten years -- doesn't work, or at least does not work at costs the American public is willing to pay.

I see no point agitating for a Full War Model against Iran, for example -- to urge such a thing is futile. I do not believe the American public has the appetite for such an endeavor. (At least-- not unless Iran uses its soon-to-be-built nukes.)

We didn't use to take care of these countries in this fashion. We used to arm and train rebels within those countries (they've all got them), fund them, provide intelligence, spread some bribe money around, and, when necessary, bring in the sort of Word of God that our air and naval forces issue from the air or sea.

Such wars were messy and bloody and often very very dirty, with guerrilla tactics that often looked like "terrorism" being employed by both sides. This is only a problem when the forces on our side employ such tactics, because that's the only time such tactics get condemned in the press.

They are, however, effective, much of the time at least, and with a light American involvement as far as troops on the ground.

Colin Powell's ludicrous statement -- "You break it, you buy it" -- is a formula for nonstop, decades-long nation-building of exactly the same type that George W. Bush campaigned against in 2000, albeit on a much longer and much bloodier scale than we saw in, say, Haiti.

Why do we "buy" it if we break it?

Broken societies reassemble themselves. In fact, they seem to do so more quickly than people expect, even when faced with great devastation.

This is a bit of a change as Ace, like a lot of conservative bloggers, was a big Iraq War booster/defender back in the day. But, like a lot of people, the seemingly endless f***-ups, the depressing grind of the Casey/Abizaid years, the thousands of dead, and so on were wearying.


And, it's not like the war's political boosters made it any easier. I don't know about you, but I can't say I was happy when Bush Administration figures like Karl Rove and Donald Rumsfeld admitted they could have done a "better job" of defending the war from leftists eager to treat every Sunni stubbed toe as the new My Lai. No kidding! I mean, you start a war; send thousands of young people to the other side of the world; and then do such a poor job fighting it that you lose a congressional majority and then a presidential election largely due to war weariness. And all you can do is send out Scott McClellan for day after agonizing day of tongue-tied "advocacy??" Try harder next time, please.


Ace is reflecting a change in defense mindedness that I think is more prevalent on the Right than people realize. No, conservatives aren't going to become peace advocates. But, the next time some Republican "moderates" like Colin Powell or John McCain put on their Long Serious Faces and announce we need to invade this or that Third World hellhole, they're going to need to have some damn good satellite images. I have to wonder if any such war would be politically saleable right now, absent another 9/11-style event.


This, of course, makes you wonder about the prospect for passing the dreaded defense cuts. The knee-jerk GOP reaction has always been to simply say, no. But, now I'm not so sure. No one's going to advocate for outright disarmament. But, do we really need to spend billions of dollars on a single ship that can be sunk by one carefully aimed missile? Do we really need to be planning fight two big wars at once? Do we really need bases around the world in the exact same places they've been since the end of the Cold War?And so on. Also, just cause the military's mission is an honorable one doesn't mean procurement scandals are not any more grubby wasteful than an ACORN shakedown.


I've seen a lot of worried commentary about China rising, and how they are building carriers. But, they're not really doing that. They're buying hulls from the Ukraine and putting weapons systems (no doubt using technology stolen from us) in them and doing things like intimidating Viet Nam. Ooooo. I'm scared.


The fact is that the Pentagon hasn't changed its habits or its budget since the end of the Reagan Administration. Not saying we should be cutting to the bone, but I'm also not seeing why American soldiers need to continue to act as the world's peace keepers.






Fair Blame Game



The liberal hive mind has thought over the S&P downgrade and come up with their slogan: it's the "Tea Party Downgrade!" John Kerry and David Axelrod were on the Sunday chat shows, frowning and frumping over this phrase, which you will no doubt see repeated in every left-leaning newspaper column published in the next two weeks. Powerline wonders if they can possibly sell this line.

Put aside for a moment the fact that Obama’s willingness to compromise was entirely theoretical; never did he put such a compromise plan on the table. His FY 2012 budget proposal was anything but a compromise; it included no entitlement reform and projected massive deficits for as far as the eye could see, and therefore received not a single vote in Congress.

What is most ludicrous is the Democrats’ effort to distract attention from the fact that they controlled Congress from January 2007 until January 2011. The first Congress that had any ability to be influenced by the Tea Party movement has been in office for only six months. Do the Democrats seriously expect anyone to believe that S&P’s downgrade of U.S. debt arises out of something that Republican Congressmen have done in the last six months? We expect the Democrats to appeal to ignorance at all times, but this is ridiculous.

Let’s take a walk down memory lane. What did the Democrats do with respect to federal debt during the four years they controlled both Houses of Congress? Here is a summary of the deficits the Democrats racked up during that time:

FY 2008 — $460 billion

FY 2009 — $1,410 billion ($1.4 trillion)

FY 2010 — $1,300 billion ($1.3 trillion)

FY 2011 — $1,600 (estimated) ($1.6 trillion)

Of the $14.5 trillion national debt, nearly $4.8 trillion–one-third of the total–was incurred during that four-year period when the Congress was exclusively controlled by the Democrats. Moreover, and equally important, during that time the Democrats did nothing to assure the markets that they have a long-term plan to deal with the country’s burgeoning debt. On the contrary, for more than two years the Congressional Democrats have refused to adopt or even to propose a budget! If you are looking for the reason why rating agencies have lost faith in the ability of our government to get its spending and debt under control, you need look no farther

Well, I don't know, but it has already worked on Megan McArdle who thinks Republicans should be/ will be "blamed."
I'm afraid I think that the lion's share of the blame goes to the GOP, which escalated to this completely unnecessary showdown, and then gave up any hope of a grand bargain because it would have required some revenue increases.


(But what about the specifics? I hear you cry. I find this singularly unconvincing as a rebuttal. The GOP was extraordinarily, um, specific about their total aversion to revenue increases, a position that they continued right up to the brink of a crisis, which makes me think that it was not merely a clever negotiating tactic. It is therefore not some sort of horrifying example of Democratic perfidy that the negotiations never went beyond fairly broad generalities. It's an example of what happens when you signal that you aren't going to compromise no matter what)


This was not terroristic, psychopathic, or whatever, and the people who used those sorts of epithets have forfeited the moral high ground they claim to occupy. I sympathize with the Tea Party's goals of smaller government. I even kind of understand what they thought they were trying to do. But it was an enormously counterproductive tactical mistake, and though of course I would say this, I believe it was made because everyone who tried to point this out was ignored . . . nay, not just ignored, but derided as a Beltway Insider Commiesymp.


In that political environment, hell, I'd downgrade us.


I'm sorry, but this was stupid. It hurt the country, and it hurt the party that staged the protest vote even more. All for very little gain
Jesus Christ, it's like the past 30 months never happened. Someone email those Powerline numbers to McArdle. Roughly one-third of the country's debt was taken on by Democrats in the Congress and the Executive Branch. (after spending the Bush years complaining about out-of-control spending!) The offer that Republicans supposedly couldn't refuse was to take ownership of that debt by increasing taxes and establishing unsustainable spending as the new baseline. Well I think that's an offer that's eminently refusable.


McArdle is a nice lady, one of the nicest in the blogosphere. She's got plenty lot of integrity, especially in her refusal to go along with liberal math. But, politically she's an unreliable fool: a "libertarian" who voted for Obama, and can never seem to support shrinking the size of government when it's time to head to the ramparts. You can meet a lot of libertarians like her. They're the ones who are smart enough not to be liberals but don't want to seem dumb, so they can't abide being Republican/Conservative. They know liberalism doesn't work, but...Sarah Palin is dumb and Rush Limbaugh is a blow-hard so it all balances out, I guess.


Fact is the downgrade is a national disgrace, even if it comes at the hands of a firm that is just as likely trying to make amends for "missing" the Crash of '08 as it is in taking a sober look at the American balance sheet. People should be losing their jobs over this. Tim Geithner, for one should absolutely resign his office, but right now the only people calling for that are Michelle Bachmann and the State Treasurer of Indiana. Does McArdle really think the Indispensable Man has less blame to take in this affair that the GOP?


No doubt if you look hard enough McArdle's archives will contain some unflattering comments about Bachmann who is one of the few elected officials out there brave enough to have warned of this downgrade and voted accordingly. But, she has migraines, a "gay" husband, and is "crazy." (that's as opposed to Sarah Palin who also warned for years about America's credit rating and is therefore "stupid").


Conservative Republicans have been warning for years that the US was on an unsustainable fiscal course. When the "moderate" Obama revealed himself to be a hard leftist, and began racking up trillion dollar deficits, the entire Republican Party recoiled as one, with the bitter exception of Arlen Specter. The "radical" Tea Partiers of 2009/10 were so disturbed by the pace of spending that they literally could not stay home, but took to the streets in peaceful protest. And now McArdle wants these folks to take the blame?


If that is indeed what happens, then there is literally no justice.


Downgrading On A Curve


After all of the faux drama of the debt ceiling debate, the US has endured what we were told we were trying to avoid: a down-grade of our creditworthiness. S&P did the deed this afternoon after the markets closed.

S&P removed for the first time the triple-A rating the U.S. has held for 70 years, saying the budget deal recently brokered in Washington didn't do enough to address the gloomy outlook for America's finances. It downgraded long-term U.S. debt to AA+, a score that ranks below more than a dozen governments', including Liechtenstein's, and on par with Belgium's and New Zealand's. S&P also put the new grade on "negative outlook," meaning the U.S. has little chance of regaining the top rating in the near term.

The unprecedented move came after several hours of high-stakes drama. It began in the morning, when word leaked that a downgrade was imminent and stocks tumbled. Around 1:30 p.m., S&P officials notified the Treasury Department that they planned to downgrade U.S. debt and presented the government with their findings. Treasury officials noticed a $2 trillion error in S&P's math that delayed an announcement for several hours. S&P officials decided to move ahead, and after 8 p.m. they made their downgrade official.

S&P said the downgrade "reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics." It also blamed the weakened "effectiveness, stability, and predictability" of U.S. policy making and political institutions at a time when challenges are mounting.

The effort is already on to blame intransigent Republicans. No doubt there's enough media bias and Pelosi rants available to make that sort of thing stick for a little while. But, I just don't see how Obama et al. avoid the fact that the American debt problem is a result of the wild spending in the post-TARP political scene.

We didn't get downgraded because of the Tea Party. We got downgraded because of TARP, the auto bailouts, the stimulus, Obamacare, QE1 & 2, Cash for Clunkers, and a million other wastes of money. Those weren't Republican or conservative initiatives. In fact, with a few notorious exceptions, they were resisted mightily by virtually every Republican in elected office. (and those who didn't resist have found themselves out of office). Hell, the Tea Party started to protest the explosion of spending coming out of DC!

Indeed, S&P specifically complains about the failure of the debt agreement to make a serious attempt to reduce spending. That wasn't the Tea Party's fault. Obama and the Democrats in Congress were the ones who pressed to preserve spending at today's mind boggling levels. As Erik Erickson points out, S&P has indicated that only a plan with a minimum of $4 trillion in cuts would have impressed them. Well that was the Tea Party's plan, a plan that has been denounced as unserious and terroristic.

No wonder S&P considers America's government to be institutionally incapable of making the sort of changes needed to change its depressing course: the people whose proposals would help are routinely denounced as the unsophisticated Hezbollah branch of the GOP, while the people causing all of this destruction can present themselves as saviors even as they blithely promulgate policies that are destroying us from within and from without.

Michelle Bachmann - she of the migraines and the "gay" husband, according to the media - immediately called for Tim Geithner's resignation. If I were him, I would be too embarrassed to show up at the office on Monday, but I'll bet he will, and everyone will continue to act like Bachmann is the one with the problem.

The fact is that we are the ones with a problem. The public has been fairly consistent in protesting the spending of the Obama years. Yet, the spending has continued virtually unabated. While we have a Republican House, we also have a Democrat Senate that hasn't produced a budget in two years for no better reason than they don't want to have to vote on all of the spending they have nonetheless been committing the country to. And, we have an economically illiterate president who has governed as a hard leftist after campaigning as a pragmatic moderate.

America will continue to be institutionally incapable of facing up to its troubles as long as 2/3rds of the government continues to be in the hands of a leftist minority that would destroy the economy rather than admit their technocratic plans have failed utterly.


Fall On Me: The Dow Goes Down


Grim news on The Street as the Dow Jones Average loses 512 points, or 3% of its value. I thought the debt ceiling deal was supposed to prevent a market crash.

Stocks spiraled downward Thursday as investors buckled under the strain of the global economic slowdown and the failure of policy makers to stabilize financial markets.

The selling began in Europe and continued in the U.S., where stocks plunged from the opening bell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst point drop since the financial crisis in December 2008, falling 512.76 points, or 4.31%, to 11383.68. Oil and other commodities were also hammered. Even gold was a safe haven no more as prices fell. Asian markets slid on Friday morning, with Tokyo, Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong markets all falling more than 3% in early trading.

Just joking about the debt ceiling, of course. I'm sure if DC remained gridlocked, things would have been even worse. As it stands, it was (temporary) good news that a US default was averted, even if the threat of default was only due to the unilateral acts of our destructive Executive Branch. But with the threat of default gone, everyone could focus on the fundamentals: namely, that Europe has a cascading series of debt crises infecting it; that the US has spent an ungodly amount of $$ on useless stimulus; and, worst of all, that US policy leavers are in the hands of ideologues who would rather go down in flames, rather than pursue pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and a true reduction in government spending. If I was still in the market (I got out at the same time QE2 ended), I'd sell, too

Everybody's got their tipping point and mine came with the announcement that 1Q had been revised downward to 0.4%. Like everyone else, I thought things had been picking up in the early part of the year, so to learn that the opposite is what was going on was disappointing to say the least. Economically, we are on the road to nowhere.

UPDATE: if there's one good thing about the latest down-turn, it's that this feels more like a "regular" recession, and not the on-set of a depression as was the case with the Crash of '08. Supposedly, there's a general fear out there that the US government and the Fed are out of policy arrows. If that's the case, things are looking up!







Last Deal Gone Down


Looks like a debt ceiling deal is in place, and John Boehner is declaring victory. All I can say is: we'll see. It is reassuring to see House progressives denouncing the deal as a "sugar-coated Satan sandwich." There must be something good in there if it can make someone that mad.

The cuts are of the fictional "slowing the rate of growth" variety, not actual cuts. But, for the first time that I am aware of, the public seems generally aware of the bogusness of the debt "crisis" and of the magic of baseline budgeting, which renders trillion dollar cuts to be evanescent. This is still a "DC" budget agreement, meaning it only really makes sense to budget wonks. (see Verum Serum's explanation for why the "baseline" will and will not prevent the Supercomittee from raising taxes).

I know there will be howls on the Right over the deal, not because they wanted to cause a default, but because there's a sense out there that cuts should be real cuts, not cuts in the rate of growth. And I can understand that. It's what's preventing this from feeling like a victory. But, you know who didn't win this fight? Barack Obama and the American Left. Ol' Golden Throat thought he could intimidate House conservatives by taking his "tax the rich" message to the American public. Well, he made his case ad nauseum, and failed spectacularly. Indeed, it was his arrogant demand for an additional $400 billion in revenue that sent John Boehner back to the Tea Party freshmen, and their allies. Maybe "we" didn't win, but the other guy sure as hell lost, and badly.

One thing that Rush Limbaugh said during the last week that I thought was effective: Republicans should stop acting like losers, and start acting like winners. By that he meant that the post-1994 Republican Congress had continued the Bob Michel mindset that came with 40 years in the House minority. They expected to lose, even though they had won a landslide election in November. At times, Rush seemed more like Mike Singletary, than the titular head of the Republican Party. But, you know, it was effective. When you saw the Democrats revving up their "Republicans are stealing X-mas" talking points for one last go, and the MSM eagerly re-typing DNC memos into front page stories, you had to think many in the GOP flinched. But, in the end, they obtained something of a back bone.

Is the deal perfect? Hell no! We've got this dumb Super-committee that is apparently going to agree on budget cuts. (Hah!) As usual, the only cuts that are imminent are cuts in defense spending, not entitlements. (not to say the Pentagon is sacrosanct. there's plenty of waste, fraud and abuse there. But at least national defense is in the Constitution). And tax increases are still very much in the mix. But, the deal gets us to 2012 with Democrats having failed to do the one thing they hoped to get out of this mess: pin the bad economy on the GOP.

All in all, it was a pretty good day at the office.


Where's The Panic Button?


Hard to believe this story in CNBC is for real. According to John Carney, the adults in the room are expressing frustration with the absence of a stampede for the exits in the markets. As they learned during the TARP voting, there's nothing like a historic drop in the Dow to change a few votes.

I just got off the phone with a source on Capitol Hill who has spent the past few days trying to convince Republicans to vote for a debt ceiling hike.

He told me that the biggest obstacle he faces has been "market complacency."

"Frankly, a bit of panic would be very helpful right now," he said.

As he explained it, lots of people in Washington, D.C. expected that this would be a week marked by panic in the markets. Stocks would tank. Bonds would get clobbered. The dollar would do something dramatic. And all of this would help convince reluctant lawmakers that they had to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling.

Hard to imagine you can improve on the boundless cynicism of the bolded part. But, wait, there's more:

"We were following the script from 2008. When the market collapsed after TARP failed, that spooked everyone enough to get them to fall in line. We thought the same thing would happen this week," he said.

That's the problem. Everyone knows that the TARP vote was indeed induced by a DC-NY axis that threatened Armageddon if a trillion dollars wasn't transferred to every major financial institution in the world by the close of business on Thursday. Ever since then, the Congress simply hasn't been legislating in a normal manner: no budgets for 800 days, endless continuing resolutions, health care reform passed via bribes and procedural tricks, etc., all the while accompanied by apocalyptic pronouncements about a broken "system" and Republican intransigence. At this point, the market has probably priced the cost of liberal governance into its buy-sell decisions, hence the failure to panic.

The markets have been down a little this week, but that is as much due to the increasing rate of bad economic news as it does the parliamentary machinations in DC. And despite the best efforts of the adults in the room, the markets simply don't believe a default is coming because such an event would be due to a willful act of the executive branch, not because of Tea Party extremists in the Legislature.


Declaring Victory? Not Quite Yet


Looks like even the wise counsel of Thomas Sowell or Ann Coulter has failed to persuade some of the more conservative members of the Republican House Caucus to vote to pass the Boehner plan.

The House postponed a Thursday night vote on Speaker John Boehner's plan to raise the federal borrowing limit after he failed to stem a revolt by conservative GOP members. The delay leaves the credit status of the U.S. government in jeopardy with five days remaining before it begins running out of money to pay all its bills

The development came after a two-hour debate on the bill was abruptly ended earlier in the evening. Mr. Boehner, knowing that a rejection could undermine his speakership, then joined other House GOP leaders in trying to pressure party members to reconsider their opposition.

Those efforts fell short and it wasn't clear if the vote would be rescheduled. But the development appeared to hand the initiative for the moment to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.), who is pushing an alternative version of the debt bill.

House Republicans and Senate Democrats planned to meet Friday morning at 10 a.m. to plan strategy. Republicans will figure out whether, and how, they can move forward.

I have to admit I would not have minded if the Boehner plan was passed, so long as we had some metaphysical certitude in knowing that the GOP would keep the budget cutting heat turned on. But, that's been the problem with past budget deals: lots of promises of cuts in the "out years" that simply never materialize.

Not only that, no budget cutting plan, no matter how "draconian" the media might portray it, has ever dealt with the spending increases built into the budget process by baseline budgeting, a concept that has only been the law since the 1970's, but which apparently is the Alpha and Omega modern legislating.

Either you want to cut spending or you don't. Spending cuts are actual cuts, not reductions in the growth of future spending, or goofy credits for not continuing the Afghan War Surge for another 10 years. (amazing how the "adults in the room" behave, isn't it).

At the moment, the GOP appears to be in disarray, but at least they're trying to put something together. Democrats are literally on the sidelines, screaming insults and announcing imperiously that the latest House offering is DOA. And it's no joke about the insults. Verum Serum has collected some choice bits, all from people in the Dem leadership btw
Tell me again how it works that the left is "winning," even as they are becoming more shill and incoherent by the hour.

Like a lot of people, I was unhappily resigned to yet another short-term fix, but for people like Connie Mack and Rand Paul, going along with this Kabuki was too much for them to stomach. Their constituents sent them to DC to make actual cuts, and so far they are determined to make them. Good for them. America might not have a third party, but the conservative wing of the Republican Party has almost become a third factor in getting anything done in Congress. It's not optimal. It will lead to a million "GOP civil war!" headlines, but the fight is a good one.

UPDATE: looks like they got it done. They added some bit about Congress passing a Balanced Budget Amendment and sending it out to the states. The final bill raises the debt ceiling by $900B and "cuts" (spare me. we know these aren't real cuts) $917B. Now the bill has gone to the Senate where the adults in the room have declared the bill a draconian terrorist act that is dead on arrival.


Presidential Courage


Former George W Bush speech-writer Bill McGurn writes that he is constantly asked whether his former boss was "smart" (Answer: of course, he is). McGurn says the more important question was whether W was courageous. Do you really need to wonder about the answer?

I saw another version of courage in President Bush. My time in the White House coincided with the worst times of the Iraq War. Each day seemed to bring news of good Americans dying for no appreciable gain, of Baghdad descending into hell, of some congressman or senator who had supported the effort in easier times now calling for America to cut and run.

More than once President Bush told me, "We are not going to lose our nerve and abandon the people of Iraq the way we did the people of Vietnam, from an embassy rooftop." It made for a lonely presidency. Rather than accept defeat, he ordered a surge that almost no one—including some around him—wanted: not the Pentagon, not a weary American public, certainly not Republicans or Democrats in Congress.

The night he gave that speech, Jan. 10, 2007, did not go well. The network gummed up the news feed. The president looked stiff and uncomfortable. Scarcely before he'd finished, the glib and gifted were on television declaring it a flop. The president expected as much. He did what he had to do anyway.

So successful was the surge that today we take it for granted. The progress we see in Iraq, and even the progress President Obama has made in Afghanistan, would not have been possible but for that surge. That surge would not have happened but for President Bush's will

Why bring this up now? Well, we've been hearing a lot of talk from today's White House about a different kind of courage; that "we" must all work together to share the sacrifice in raising taxes to fund a grossly swollen federal government. The overhanging threat is that of default, loss of our AAA credit rating, and a ruined economy. Better to deal rather than face that, right? But, the White House is telling a different story to the banks. There's not going to be any default on August 2:

While officials from the Obama Administration raised their rhetoric over the weekend about the possibility of a debt default if the debt ceiling isn't raised, they privately have been telling top executives at major U.S. banks that such an event won’t happen, FOX Business has learned.


In a series of phone calls, administration officials have told bankers that the administration will not allow a default to happen even if the debt cap isn't raised by the August 2 date Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says the government will run out of money to pay all its bills, including obligations to bond holders. Geithner made the rounds on the Sunday talk shows saying a default is imminent if the debt ceiling isn't raised, and President Obama issued a similar warning during a Friday press conference after budget negotiations with House Republicans broke down.

If you are a Democrat, courage is threatening a market collapse through a strategic default, all the while assuring Wall Street that all the apocalyptic talk is just to scare the rubes and hicks who dared to send conservatives to Congress.

Courage is threatening to refuse to send checks to seniors and the military, while making sure that the Planned Parenthoods and ACORN's of the world get their gov't $$ on time and without interruption.

Courage is demanding your opposition compromise while you present nothing but "non-negotiables."

Courage is making bad faith arguments about "millionaires & billionaires" and corporate jet owners while being the number-one recipient of donations from these targets.

And courage is making all manner of demagogic attacks while hiding behind the poodle skirts of a news media you know will present everything you do in the best possible light, all the while frowning and fussing that Republicans will be "blamed" for every ill that might flow from a default even as you are the one who is actively seeking to bring it about.

Democrats obviously think they are arguing from a position of strength. But they are hardly fighting this fight in a courageous manner.


A Busy Saturday


Saturday is normally a quiet news day, but not today.

1. Did anyone actually go to the White House at 11 AM like the president ordered? Supposedly the Senate and House were negotiating a short-term deal, but that seems to have fallen apart as well.

A correspondent of Instapundit's offers this sobering thought: what if Obama and the Democrats are flirting with a market panic because they don't realize that the US is really out of $$ to fund all of their brilliant ideas?
What has me worried is the idea that the Democrats ACTUALLY DON’T UNDERSTAND THIS IS THE END OF THE ROAD. What if they actually aren’t capable of recognizing when they’ve lost? Or when we’ve run out of other people’s money? None of these people work for a living. Their concept of where money comes from and how wealth is created (and destroyed) is completely divorced from reality because they live in a government bubble. And the very small minority among them that do understand this from previous jobs and experience are okay with Progressive policies aimed at leveling/equalizing/delivering-economic-justice because they just assume that the economy can handle some siphoning. And usually it can. But not at this volume or for this time scale.
Monday should be fun.

2. Norway looks like it has been the victim of right-wing terrorism of the sort the left has been dreaming about for years. I don't think you can get away with saying Anders Breivik was crazy. The amount of planning that went into this event, and the length of time he spent carrying out his plans, belies any claim of craziness. He was simply evil incarnate. I mean, what kind of person deliberately targets children, shooting them point-blank while they beg for their lives?

A grim thought: I have no doubt that Breivik is an outlier, and that the right-wing in Norway is no more prone to violence than anyone else. But, it had to have crossed his mind that violence was the only way he could get his message out, given the appeasement offered in the face of jihadi violence.

Regardless of ideology, it's incredible the amount of destruction that one man was able to wreak in such a short time. It's also incredible how long his rampage at the youth camp was able to last. No one there seems to have had a gun or a means of quickly communicating with the police, something that is very hard to imagine in the United States.

btw, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Norwegian police have labeled Berwik's crimes to be acts of terrorism punishable by up to 21 years in prison. Gotta love enlightened Europe's approach to crime.

3. Cong. David Wu (D-Oregon) has been accused of making an inappropriate sexual advance towards - or having a sexual relationship of some sorts with - the barely-legal daughter of one of his donors. You may recall Wu's election campaign, which was suspended by his own staff the week before the election because of concerns about his mental health. Naturally, the very sophisticated voters in Wu's district returned him to office.

Althouse offers a dissent from right-wing crowing over yet another creepy lefty sex scandal.
At this point, we hear about "erratic" behavior that doesn't ostensibly involve sex. What exactly are the "new questions"? This is a cheap and ridiculous article in my view. A woman who is unhappy with her sexual relationship with Wu has called his office but has not called the police, and now we're supposed to review everything else we know about him in some new context? Is this the way we are to do politics in America now?

Note that the woman who has brought this chaos into Wu's career is shielded by the newspaper's policy not to "use the names of victims of sexual assault without their permission." That's convenient. I think if you are going to have a policy like that, you should not report at all unless the alleged victim has reported a crime to the police. It's not fair.
I was at a San Francisco French bistro a couple weeks ago. The place has racks of European and French magazines, one of which had a big cover story about the aftermath of the DSK rape case. They had published several pictures of the accuser, as well as her name, (which I don't remember), of course. And it made sense. It was, after all, a part of the story. The practice of maintaining the anonymity of rape accusers makes less and less sense.

4. China's high speed rail, which the American left from Obama to Thomas Friedman to Arnold Schwarzenegger has been touting as the wave of the future, has gone from triumph to triumph. First the trains were slowed down to "normal" speeds. Now there has been a spectacular accident, triggered by a lightning strike (wah?), leading to the deaths of 32 people.

At least 32 people died when a high-speed train smashed into a stalled train in China's eastern Zhejiang province Saturday, state media said, raising new questions about the safety of the fast-growing rail network.

The accident occurred on a bridge near the city of Wenzhou after the first train lost power due to a lightning strike and a bullet train following behind crashed into it, state television said.

The total power failure rendered useless an electronic safety system designed to warn following trains of stalled trains on the tracks up ahead, and automatically halt them before a collision can occur, the report added.

It showed one or possibly two carriages on the ground under the bridge, with another hanging above it. Several other carriages derailed in the accident near Wenzhou, some 860 miles south of Beijing.

More than 200 people have been taken to hospital, the official Xinhua news agency added.

One train was heading from Beijing to the coastal city of Fuzhou, the other was running from Zhejiang provincial capital Hangzhou, also to Fuzhou.

"The train suddenly shook violently, casting luggage all around," Xinhua quoted survivor Liu Hongtao as saying.

"Passengers cried for help but no crew responded."

In a command economy, you can command something to be done, but you can't command it to work.

5. Amy Winehouse has, not surprisingly, died. It's not just that she was well known for being a heavy drug user. Her entire image, and career, was defined by drug use. The expectation was that she would die. Perhaps there were performance incentives in her contract with a big pay-out to her heirs.

One thing I've never understood about pop stars and drug use. Why is it that the people making money off of them - i.e. their managers and the suits at the record label - don't make more of an effort to protect their investment from destruction? Winehouse's big breakthrough was in 2006, and since then she's been little more than a tabloid feature more than a singer. Did the A&R people at her label realize that, maybe she should have been making music instead of headlines? Keith Richards never let drug use or police raids stop his music making, after all.

Britney Spears, of all people, is the exception to this depressing rule. When she was on the road to oblivion, the suits and her family stepped in to

Along those lines, I remember an interview where Clive Davis lamented the early death of Janis Joplin, and said he regretted not stepping in when he saw that she had a serious drinking problem. Got that right. Can you imagine how much more music (and money) Davis would have gotten out of her if she'd just stayed alive?



Worker's Of America: Your "Free" Health Care Is Going To Cost More Than Originally Expected


I know I should be writing about Speaker Boehner's "dramatic" walk-away from debt ceiling talks (and Obama's equally "dramatic" call for the congressional leadership to come to the White House at 11 AM tomorrow), but I wanted to make sure to highlight the latest example of just how f*ckd up Obamacare has turned out to be:

A major provision of the healthcare reform law designed to prevent businesses from dropping coverage for their workers could inadvertently leave families without access to subsidized health insurance.

The problem is a huge headache for the Obama administration and congressional Democrats, because it could leave families unable to buy affordable health insurance when the healthcare law requires that everyone be insured starting in 2014.

Some of the administration’s closest allies on healthcare reform warn this situation could dramatically undercut support for the law, which already is unpopular with many voters and contributed to Democrats losing the House in the 2010 midterm elections.

Yes, the top-down legislated mandate that health insurance be affordable may render insurance unaffordable for the regular folks whom liberals claim to be acting. The reason is a little complicated but The Hill summarizes it well:
At issue is a so-called firewall in the law that denies subsidies to workers whose employers offer quality, affordable coverage.

The firewall applies to plans with premiums that cost less than 9.5 percent of a worker’s income. If a worker has to dole out more than that amount to buy coverage, the employer coverage is considered unaffordable and the worker is eligible for subsidies to buy coverage on the new exchanges.

Initially, advocates thought the threshold also applied to family coverage. If premium costs paid to cover a worker’s family cost 20 percent of a worker’s income, for example, the worker and his or her family should be eligible for subsidies.

But in calculating the bill’s cost last year, Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) took the law to mean that employers and their families aren’t eligible for subsidies as long as the individual plan is affordable — regardless of the price of the family plan.

This means the costs to an employee for covering his or her family could be too high to afford for many working families.

If you’ve got employer-based coverage that’s affordable for the employee only, Guyer said, the family is expected to take the employer coverage even if its totally unaffordable and no one in the family is eligible for the exchange subsidies.

And, of course, you can't go shopping for something more affordable because Obamacare has thoughtfully grandfathered you in to the insurance you had prior to its passage. That was the promise after all: if you like your current plan, you can keep it.

There's the inevitable talk in the article that Congress or Obama will have to "fix" this, and I suppose they will. But, I'm guessing that Obamacare was able to be scored as deficit neutral by way of the assumption laid out above; namely that families would pay for the employer coverage even if they couldn't afford it.

And, this is one of many landmines contained in the Obamacare bill. The Free Will Wife, who is a psychologist by trade, was just complaining yesterday that she has had a difficult time becoming a provider for many insurance companies because most of them stopped taking on new providers after the health care law went into effect. This makes it difficult for her to attract clients since many of them want to use their insurance to pay for sessions. You bet she's beyond irritated. As soon as she gets her citizenship, I guarantee she won't be registering as a Democrat.

I won't even mention the death panels which have gone from "Palinesque hysterics" to approved Krugman talking point to official policy in short order.

This is one of many elements of government spending that Democrats have declared to be sacrosanct, an interesting position given how unpopular Obamacare already is, and how unpopular it will become as Americans at all income levels find their health care becoming more expensive even as it becomes more difficult to obtain. We have now seen what's in the bill, and it's worse than we could have imagined.

But, the Republican Establishment, not to say moderate Democrats, seem to have already decided that repeal is impossible.

And we are the radical fringe.

And Michelle Bachmann has migraines.

We are in a race against time here, and victory in next year's presidential election is the only acceptable result.


Little Depression Blues


The Little Depression got a little more depressing this week as some high profile companies announced thousands of lay-offs (essentially wiping out the pitiful gains of the last couple months). There are still mainstream economists out there forecasting that the second half of the year will see stronger growth, but...I just don't see how that's possible.

Cisco Systems Inc., Lockheed Martin Corp. and troubled bookstore chain Borders Group Inc. are among those that have recently announced hefty cuts, while recent government numbers underscore how companies have shifted toward cutting jobs.

The increase in layoffs is a key reason why the U.S. recorded an average of only 21,500 new jobs over the past two months, far below the level needed to bring down unemployment, which now stands at 9.2%.

The cuts also reflect the shifting outlook of employers, many of whom had expected the economy to gain speed as the year progressed. Instead, growth has faltered. If the pace continues to disappoint, more companies will feel pressure to pull back. "Layoffs have played a big role [in weak job growth] over the last few months," said Mike Montgomery, an economist at IHS Global Insight. "The soft patch is more layoffs and nothing else to pick up the slack."

Like I say, it's depressing. And it's even more depressing to contemplate the head-long rush among the Big Government branch of the DC political class to reach a debt ceiling deal that will lock in the sort of trillion-dollar-deficit spending that has done so much to kill the economy.

Meanwhile, you know what state, besides Texas, is now seeing job growth? Wisconsin, which has seen 12,900 jobs created in the last month (Gateway Pundit says this is half the jobs created in the United States during that time). You may remember the last time the Dairy State was in the news. That was when leftists rallied to stop a budget-cutting, union-taming Republican governor from destroying the middle class. Scott Walker - an inoffensive midwesterner in the Pawlenty mould - got the full Palin/Bachmann treatment. A typical left-wing attack on a GOP politician, and one that is looking hysterically, not to mention historically, wrong.

The GOP is never going to get favorable press treatment. It is never going to have the songs and the sentiment that the grievance class enjoys. But what the GOP can get is results. But, those results only come when Republican politicians govern according to conservative principles, consistently applied. But, as we've seen this week, such politicians are damn hard to find, even when congressional majorities are handed to them on a silver platter with the simple instruction that they cut spending and shrink the size and scope of government.

The left must know that their plans and plots can never lead to the sort of economic dynamism that the average American sees as their birthright, and which is not that far out of reach. But, for all of their protestations that they are working for the middle class and/or the Little Guy, leftists govern in a manner that hurts everybody's interests except their own. They would rather preside over a "growthless recovery" than go against their ideology in order to truly turn the economy around.


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