The Big Murkowski: Another Moderate Loses Their Seat
Jim Geraghty has rightly described the apparent Joe Miller victory over Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary for the Alaska Senate race as the biggest upset of the 2010 primary cycle. It's not just that Miller was an unknown going up against a scion of one of Alaska's first families. Miller was almost no one's radar screen, and wasn't even polling within 10 percentage points in the last couple weeks before the election.
Of course, polling in Alaska may not be as exact as it is in a wired state like California. One expects that Alaskan "push polling" involves sled dogs at the Iditarod. And, who's to say that Miller was "obscure," which seems to be the take by Murkowski's friends in the media and Senate? Maybe they hadn't heard of Miller, but someone did. Sarah Palin endorsed him, and it's my understanding that she has a certain level of fame in Alaska. More important, the Tea Party Express spent $500,000 on GOTV efforts in Alaska, and Miller's ground game was apparently enthusiastic and hard working. Can't we assume that going door-to-door in Alaska requires a bit more determination and enthusiasm than doing the same in, say, Philadelphia? That's the sort of determination and enthusiasm that wins elections, and which a pol like Lisa Murkowski is congenitally unable to whip up.
What Miller did not have was MSM publicity of his campaign. Even Rand Paul was profiled in a number of articles in the NY Times in the months leading up to the Kentucky primary. But, Miller was treated with the same level of coverage as a fringe candidate like Alvin Greene or Orly Taitz; that is with none at all. Miller is a military veteran, a Yale Law graduate, and a former magistrate judge. In other words, he's a solid citizen with an accomplished record of public service and intellectual achievement. But, he's a Tea Party candidate, and thus "fringe" in the eyes of people who should really know better at this point.
Then again, I knew who Miller was because Mark Levin interviewed him a few weeks ago and continually included Miller in his roll call of insurgent candidates to support in the place of moderate squishes. Now, I realize Levin is a hateful, fear-mongering radio blowhard. But he is also a guy with a nightly audience of 6 million. Levin might not be a member of the MSM, but he certainly is a media figure and political analyst. You would know a lot more about Alaskan politics listening to him than all of the other "smart" talking heads who fill cable and network shows and express befuddlement about how Miller "came out of nowhere."
Murkowski, for her part, seems to be in denial. That's the only possible reason for the talk of her pursuing a third party run. Funny how GOP moderates, whom we are told we *must* elect, are always bolting for the other side or chasing independent bids as soon as they are in danger of losing their jobs. So much for the party loyalty they always demanded from the rest of us.
The fact is that Murkowski is emblematic of the sort of politicians who are in big trouble this year. She voted for TARP. She refused to support the repeal of Obamacare and even said she thought the country needs sort of government health care plan that "works"(?!). She's the sort of Republican Senator - like Bennet and Spector - who could be counted on to make a deal. And that's the thing. After the Obamacare cram-down, we are not interested in any more "deals" with Democrats, at least not the ones presently in office. For Murkowski, the Constitution was an impediment to "comprehensive" liberal legislation from which she could extract booty for her constituents. That's just not going to cut it this year.
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